Why Democrats may win 2010, Part One
Posted by Andrew | Filed under Elections
I am currently thinking about topics for a paper I will have to write for my Elections and Polling class this semester. This is my exploration of a possible topic.
Some may laugh, but there is a reasonable chance that the Democratic Party may retain their majority in the Senate after the midterm elections this November. The Democrats currently hold a commanding 18 seat majority over the minority Republicans and their are 36 seats up for election this year, two more than the usual 34 for this Senate class (Class III), due to Joe Biden having to leave his seat to become Vice President, and Hillary Clinton leaving her seat to become the Secretary of State.
On the Democratic side, there are four incumbents retiring from the Senate, Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, Ted Kaufman of Delaware, Roland Burris of Illinois, and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota. Connecticut is most likely to be a safe Democratic seat with the state’s Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the major Democratic candidate, winning the seat. In the past four Presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote. However, in North Dakota, Republican Governor John Hoeven is running for the seat after serving as the Governor since December 2000 with no real Democrat challenging. George W. Bush won the popular vote in North Dakota twice and so did John McCain in 2008.
On the Republican side, there are six incumbents retiring from the Senate, among them Judd Gregg of New Hampshire and Kit Bond of Missouri. In the last two Presidential elections saw the popular vote in New Hampshire go to Kerry and Obama and in their last Senate race, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeated incumbent Republican John Sununu. The race so far is between Democratic two term congressman Paul Hodes facing off against the state’s former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte who served in the capacity under Democratic Governor John Lynch, who has served as Governor since winning election in 2004 and won his third term in 2008 with 70% of the vote.
In Missouri, McCain won the popular vote their in the Presidential election, but by less than a percent. In their last Senate election in 2006, Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Republican Jim Talent and Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won his election in 2008, having served as the elected Attorney General of the state. The most likely Republican candidate for the seat is Congressman Roy Blunt who has name recognition as a Congressman serving since election in 1996 and as the father of former Governor Matt Blunt. However, the leading Democratic candidate, Robin Carnahan, the daughter of former Missouri Governor Mel Carnaham and former Senator for the state Jean Carnahan, being the first woman to sit on the Senate for Missouri.
Looking at the Democratic incumbents seeking reelection, the most safe seats belong to Daniel Inouye of Hawaii who has served as a Senator for the state since being elected in 1962, the only Senator more senior than Inouye being Robert Byrd of West Virginia. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin also has a safe seat in the Senate. No one from the Republican party has really challenged Feingold although there is a possibility that former Governor Tommy Thompson, who served as Secretary of Health and Human Services under Bush, may run for the seat. Barbara Boxer of California and Patty Murray of Washington also have safe seats.
More on this to come.
