Why Democrats may win 2010, Part Three
Posted by Andrew | Filed under Elections
Here is the second half of my paper on reason the Democrats may retain their Senate majority after 2010, first half posted here.
Shortly after withdrawing from his nomination to be Secretary of Commerce in the Obama administration in February of 2009, New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg announced that he would not seek re-election to a fourth term in the Senate. Congressman Paul Hodes is seeking the nomination from the Democratic party to replace Gregg in the Senate. Hodes has served as the Representative from the state’s second district since being elected in 2006. Leading in the Republican party nomination is Kelly Ayotte, the state’s former Attorney General serving from 2004 until 2009. According to polls conducted by WMUR Granite State Poll and the University of New Hampshire in October, Ayotte leads Hodes with 40% versus 33% of the vote. However, in the same poll, only 6% of respondents were definitely decided on who they would vote for.
In the Presidential election of 2000, New Hampshire’s four electoral votes were awarded to George W. Bush, however, John Kerry and Barack Obama won the state in the 2004 and 2008 elections respectively. In 2004, Republican incumbent Governor Craig Benson lost re-election to Democrat John Lynch who will seek election to a fourth term this year, and in 2006, Democrats Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes both beat incumbent Republicans Jeb Bradley and Charlie Bass in the state’s two Congressional elections. Additionally, in 2008, former Governor and Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeated Republican incumbent John Sununu in the state’s last Senate race. All of these events indicate that the state of New Hampshire has become increasingly Democratic in its voting, when in the past, it has been a swing state due to it’s status as one of the first states to hold primaries in Presidential elections.
“There has definitely been a demographic shift here,” says Joe Marquette, a Barrington, New Hampshire resident, businessman, teacher, and Democratic activist. When asked whether or not Hodes could beat Ayotte in the general election, he said, “If Hodes wins, it will have been a close race.” In 2008, Marquette volunteered in Democratic campaigns and fought for the election of Obama as well as Governor John Lynch, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, and Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen. The political atmosphere in New Hampshire is evenly divided, “There are both people who are afraid of the Democrats and afraid of spending money and the health care bill, meanwhile those who want it are in Dover and Portsmouth having rallies.” Democrats and ideological liberals have gathered in the larger towns and cities in New Hampshire rallying support for the Democrats and health care reform. On whether or not their is hostility towards the Democrats over unemployment or health care reform, Marquette said, “You see people with bumper stickers and lawn signs that are against Obama and the Dems, but they are definitely not the majority, but neither are the solid liberals.” New Hampshire’s Senate race has the potential to become one of the most highly contested elections in the country.
Another issue to consider in the upcoming Senate elections is that some Republican incumbents are being challenged within their own parties. One example being 2008 Republican Presidential nominee John McCain of Arizona. Former Congressman and conservative radio talk show host, J.D. Hayworth has made a highly publicized bid against McCain for the Republican nomination for the Senate election. In November of 2009, Rasmussen Reports released a poll stating that McCain had 45% of the vote to 43% for Hayworth in the primary, and that 61% of Republicans in Arizona felt that McCain had “lost touch with his own party.” However, in January, it was announced that McCain’s running mate in the 2008 Presidential election, Sarah Palin, would be campaigning for him in Arizona. According to Rasmussen, this caused McCain to lead Hayworth 53% to 31%, while 7% prefer another candidate and 8% remain undecided. Despite this, conservative talk show hosts Mark Levin and Michael Savage as well as conservative Fox News pundit Glenn Beck have publicly endorsed Hayworth over McCain.
In McCain’s previous Senate election in 2004, McCain defeated Democrat Stuart Starky by over one million votes. However in 2002, the state elected Democrat Janet Napolitano to be Governor, who also won re-election in 2006. Currently, out of Arizona’s eight congressional districts, five seats are held by Democrats, including Ed Pastor, who has served in the House for Arizona since 1991. In the 2008 Presidential election, McCain won the state’s electoral votes by over 600,000 votes, but Obama won the popular vote in four of Arizona’s fifteen counties. It is possible that when the general election is held in Arizona this November, the Democratic nominee could defeat John McCain due to what could become a division amongst Republicans and ideological conservatives over whether or not McCain actually represents the best interests of his party and whether J.D. Hayworth represents them more. In a state where Democrats have had success in recent history, a divided party could be costly for McCain.
Another Republican incumbent who is being challenged within his own party is Utah Senator Robert Bennett, who is being challenged by businessman Tim Bridgewater, former Congressman Merrill Cook and attorney Mike Lee. Lee’s announcement that he would challenge Bennett came with introductions from former Governor Norm Bangerter and former Congressman Jim Hansen. He also received an endorsement from state Attorney General, Mark Shurtleff, who was also running against Bennett until suspending his campaign to attend to his family. On February 25, CNN reported that Cook would enter the race and stated that conservatives are angry at Bennett for his votes for bailing out Wall Street financial firms and the Detroit automakers. It was also reported that conservative groups, Club for Growth and FreedomWorks were also campaigning against Bennett. While the race for the Republican nomination has become crowded, Utah Democrats have so far united behind businessman Sam Granato.
In 2000, Merrill Cook, who represented Utah’s second district sought a third term in the House against Democratic nominee Jim Matheson, son of former Governor Scott Matheson. In that election, Cook was challenged for the Republican nomination by businessman Derek Smith who defeated him with 59% of the vote in the primary. Smith went on to lose the general election to Matheson after only obtaining 41% of the vote, and Matheson is likely to seek his sixth term in Congress this year, being the only Democrat representing Utah in the federal legislature. It is not unreasonable to think that the same scenario could happen this year in the Senate race. If either Bennett or Lee wins the nomination, there is a possibility that the Republicans will not unite behind a single candidate and the Democratic nominee could win a Senate seat in one of the country’s most conservative states.
There are however, many incumbent Democrats in swing states will have to campaign harder than other Democrats seeking re-election. In their Senate ratings, the Cook Political Report states that incumbent Democrats Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Michael Bennet of Colorado, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada are all in swing states. Blanche Lincoln comes from the home state of Bill Clinton, who served as their Governor and won the state in the Presidential elections of 1992 and 1996. Bennet, who has only served in the Senate for Colorado since 2009, replacing Ken Salazar who left office to become the Secretary of the Interior, is in a tough election. In 2008, Colorado elected Democrat Mark Udall to the state’s other Senate seat and currently, five of the state’s seven Congressional seats are held by Democrats and in 2006, Democrat Bill Ritter was elected to Governor. Like New Hampshire, Colorado’s recent history indicates a shift towards being a Democratic state.
Arlen Specter and Harry Reid have the most difficult re-election bids in the Democratic party. Arlen Specter was originally elected in 2004 as a Republican and is being challenged by Congressman Joe Sestak for the Democratic nomination and may not defeat likely Republican challenger, former Congressman and President of the Club for Growth, Pat Toomey. Harry Reid currently serves with Republican Senator John Ensign, and in 2006, the state elected Republican Jim Gibbons to Governor, although, in January 2009, the Reno Gazette Journal reported his approval rating as 25%. Two of Nevada’s three Congressional districts are represented by Democrats, but the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported in January that Harry Reid’s approval rating among Nevada voters is only 33%. Both Specter and Reid are not likely to retain their seats in the Senate.
Both Democrats and Republicans have a challenge in the upcoming mid-term elections across the country, but the Democrats do have the ability to maintain their majority in the Senate. Despite the challenges facing Senators Reid and Specter, most incumbent Democrats seeking re-election are going to retain their seats and with Republicans not seeking re-election in swing states like Missouri and New Hampshire, the Democrats have the opportunity to win those additional seats. In addition, with Republicans dividing over races in the states of Arizona and Utah, there is a chance that some incumbent Republicans from traditionally conservative states may lose their seats to Democrats. With controversies over health care reform, the state of the economy and the unemployment rate, many conservatives like Utah Senator Orrin Hatch are confident that the Republicans will win back the Senate in 2010. However, considering the current circumstances, that confidence may be unfounded.
For the full paper, including a list of the sources that I used, go here.
Why Democrats may win 2010, Part Two
Posted by Andrew | Filed under Elections
The nice thing about having your own blog is posting whatever you want on it. Here is the first half of my paper thoerizing why the Democratic party will maintain a majority in the Senate after the 2010 general election. I began discussing this here in February.
In the mid-term elections of 2006, the Democratic party obtained an additional thirty one seats with in the House of Representatives, and with two independent Senators in caucus, a fifty one seat majority in the Senate. President George W. Bush’s approval rating had been on a decline since the previous year and at the time of the elections was at 38% in early November according to a USA Today/Gallup poll. Military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq had become the major concerns to the public at large, and the national attitude that had led to the re-election of President Bush two years earlier had vanished. The next two years would lead to the approval rating of President Bush continuing its decline and the race for the Democratic nomination for President to begin with Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and the eventual nominee Barack Obama gaining traction in their respective campaigns.
In the elections of 2008, Barack Obama defeating Republican nominee John McCain in the Presidential race by 192 electoral points. The Democrats won an additional twenty-one seats in the House and, following Arlen Specter’s announcement the following April that he would return to the Democratic party, a filibuster-proof sixty seats in the Senate. The Democrats entered 2009 with an agenda including the reformation of health care, tackling the global warming and energy issues, and changing the strategies of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, the United States had entered an economic recession and the unemployment rate was rising, public attitudes were once again changing. Concerns over the management of the $700 billion economic stimulus funds and the contents of the health care reform legislation caused President Obama’s approval rating to go from 68% at the beginning of his presidency down to 47% a year later according to Gallup. It was in January when a special election was held in Massachusetts to fill the Senate seat of Democrat Ted Kennedy who had passed away the previous August, that the Democrats found themselves in trouble.
The special election in Massachusetts came down to the commonwealth’s Attorney General, Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican state senator, Scott Brown. Senator Brown said at a campaign event, “In Washington, there is no debate. Everything’s being done in the back rooms, The health care bill, we’ve lost faith, and we need to send it back to start over.” One of Senator Brown’s most notable campaign promises was to be the 41st vote against controversial health care reform legislation being pushed by President Obama and the Democrats. On January 18th, Scott Brown won the senate seat that had been held by Ted Kennedy since 1962 with 51% of the vote, saying at the end his victory speech, “I’m Scott Brown, I’m from Wrentham, I drive a truck, and I am nobody’s senator but yours.” On February 4th, Senator Brown was sworn in and the Democratic party had lost their sixty seat majority in the Senate.
In 2010, President Obama will see his first midterm elections since taking office, and the first clear indication of how he has performed in his first two years in office. There are thirty-six seats in the Senate up for election, with eighteen being held by Democrats and eighteen being held by Republicans. Five of those Democrats and six of those Republicans are not seeking re-election including Missouri Senator Kit Bond and New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg. Meanwhile, incumbent Senators John McCain of Arizona and Robert Bennett of Utah are being challenged within their own parties for nomination to the Senate. While answering the questions of students at the University of Utah, Republican Senator Orrin Hatch confirmed his confidence that his party would recapture the Senate in the upcoming elections. However, with the Republican Senators who intend not to stand for election, and the current challenges facing others, the Republican party will not be able to capture the additional ten seats required to reclaim the majority in the Senate that they lost in the mid-term elections of 2006.
On January 8th, 2009, Missouri Senator Kit Bond announced that he would not seek a fifth term in the Senate, saying, “in 1972, I became Missouri’s youngest Governor. Good friends, I have no aspiration of becoming Missouri’s oldest senator.” Missouri Congressman Roy Blunt is the candidate most likely to receive the Republican nomination, receiving 53% of the vote according to a poll conducted in November of 2009. Congressman Blunt has served as the Representative for Missouri’s seventh district since 1997 and has been active in his party’s leadership in the House, most notably as the Majority Whip between 2003 and 2007. The leading candidate from the Democratic party is the current Secretary of State for Missouri, Robin Carnahan. Although Carnahan has only served as the Secretary of State since 2005, her family legacy includes her father, Mel Carnahan, who served two terms as Governor of the state, and her brother, Russ Carnahan who currently serves as the Representative from the state’s third district. She has the name recognition in Missouri that can be associated with Kennedy in Massachusetts or Huntsman in Utah.
In the general election of 2008, Carnahan was re-elected to the position of Secretary of State in Missouri with over 61% of the statewide vote, winning the popular vote in 104 counties out of 114. In that same election, Democrat Jay Nixon was elected to be Governor of the state with over 58% of the statewide vote and John McCain narrowly won the state by only 4,000 votes in the Presidential election. In the state’s last Senate election held in 2006, Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Republican Jim Talent, who was seeking a second term, by over 48,000 votes. Historically, Missouri has been a political swing state, voting for Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton in 1976, 1992 and 1996, and Republicans Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush in 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000 and 2004. In a poll released by Public Policy Polling in January found that Carnahan leads with 45% of the vote, only 1% more than Blunt with 11% of pollers undecided. The recent history of elections in Missouri would indicate that the state is very likely to elect a Democrat to be their senator.
On February 18, the Cook Political Report released a summary of Senate elections in 2010 based on which party is likely to retain the seat. There are seven incumbent Democrats who are all expected to be re-elected including Daniel Inouye of Hawaii, Patrick Leahy of Vermont and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and Barbara Boxer of California are also likely to win re-election and the open seat in Connecticut will likely remain Democratic. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut has announced that he would not run for re-election, and according to polls conducted by Quinnipiac University in March, the likely Democratic nominee will the the state’s Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and the likely Republican nominee will be former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment Linda McMahon. That same poll also concludes that if the final Senate race was between Blumenthal and McMahon, Blumenthal would win with 61% of the statewide vote. It also concludes that 31% of voters who identified themselves as Republicans would vote for Blumenthal over McMahon.
The Cook Political Report also states that seats up for election in Indiana and Delaware are likely to be won by Republicans nominees. However, in the 2008 general elections, both Indiana and Delaware’s electoral votes were awarded to Obama and in that same election, Delaware elected Democrat Joe Biden to his seventh term in the Senate and Democrat Jack Markell to be Governor of the state. However, the Democrats are likely to lose the seat currently occupied by Byron Dorgan of North Dakota who is not seeking re-election this year. The only Democrat to announce candidacy for the office is State Senator Tracy Potter who is likely to face Republican Governor John Hoeven, who is currently serving his third term. A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports in February has Hoeven defeating Potter with 71% of the statewide vote.
Democrats will also have challenges in elections being held in traditionally Republican states such as Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Oklahoma, and South Carolina. In Kansas, incumbent Republican Sam Brownback is not running for re-election and recently, the Democrats had a victory in the state when Kathleen Sebelius was elected as Governor. However, Sebelius left office to serve as the Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Obama administration and so far, the only candidate on the Democratic side is communications director and former journalist Charles Schollenberger. On the Republican side, Congressman Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt have both announced their candidacy. According to a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, both Republicans would receive at least 50% of the vote over a Democrat or third party candidate. However, the Democrats have the opportunity to replace incumbent Republicans in Kentucky and Ohio, where Jim Bunning and George Voinovich are both not running for re-election. Another chance for the Democrats to pick up another seat is the election in New Hampshire.
To be continued…
Anti-Incumbancy at it's Finest
Posted by Andrew | Filed under Elections
On May 8th, both the Republican and Democratic parties of Utah met for their bi-annual nominating conventions at the Calvin L. Rampton Salt Palace Convention Center in my new hometown, Salt Lake City. Calvin L. Rampton was a Governor of Utah who served three consecutive terms and was one of the most prominent Democrats in Utah’s history. So, why the Republicans chose the venue, I have no idea. For them, Democrat is a dirty word in the Beehive State.
Surely, the Sandy Expo Center in Sandy, Utah just 15 miles south of the Salt Palace will soon have it’s name changed to the Jon Huntsman, Jr. Expo Center and Szechuan Palace Buffet. Something like that. (read this if you don’t get it)
The entirety of the national media watched as well respected Republican incumbent Senator Bob Bennett was virtually gunned down by his own party in two votes. The issue? He voted in favor of the massive government funded bail outs such as TARP. Utah Republicans eliminated him after two votes in favor of either Tim Bridgewater and Mike Lee, a businessman and an attorney of whom trumpet themselves as being more conservative then their incumbent opponent.
Menawhile, downstairs from the Republican convention, the Democrats of Congressional district 2 decided that the incumbent Democrat, Jim Matheson, also was guilty of not being liberal enough. Matheson voted against the healthcare bill and Claudia Wright is challenging him in a primary vote with the campaign slogan of “The DEMOCRAT for Congress.” I think that she should be ashamed for the uncensored use of such profanity on her campaign material.
Claudia Wright won’t get far, Democratic delegates weren’t stupid enough to completely kick Matheson out, just stupid enough to make him go through a primary. What they don’t seem to realize is that moderate Republicans will come vote in a primary to ensure that Matheson gets nominated so that they can vote for him again in November.
Prior to the actual convention where we all sit and listen to those we are their to nominate speak, one of the people with the Wright campaign approached me and a friend of mine in the hallway. My friend was parading with a sign stating “Wright is Wrong for Utah,” and this gentleman told us that Jim Matheson isn’t a Democrat and anyone who thinks he’s a Democrat is full of “bullshit.” Completely ignoring the fact that we aren’t there to nominate the person who is the most likely to actually be elected.
It seems that everyone has forgotten that elections are won “between the forty yard lines,” as my dad would say, in a a quest for ideological purity. While the Republicans are giving the Democrats a chance to win a senate seat by booting a popular incumbent in Bob Bennett and the Democrats are giving the Republicans a chance to grab a Congress seat by forcing popular incumbent Matheson into a primary. Is it possible that the Utah system where a relatively small group of 3,500 delegates can defeat someone who the greater public actually wants to re-elect?
Or is it possible that the war between the two major parties has gone too far?
Why Democrats may win 2010, Part One
Posted by Andrew | Filed under Elections
I am currently thinking about topics for a paper I will have to write for my Elections and Polling class this semester. This is my exploration of a possible topic.
Some may laugh, but there is a reasonable chance that the Democratic Party may retain their majority in the Senate after the midterm elections this November. The Democrats currently hold a commanding 18 seat majority over the minority Republicans and their are 36 seats up for election this year, two more than the usual 34 for this Senate class (Class III), due to Joe Biden having to leave his seat to become Vice President, and Hillary Clinton leaving her seat to become the Secretary of State.
On the Democratic side, there are four incumbents retiring from the Senate, Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, Ted Kaufman of Delaware, Roland Burris of Illinois, and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota. Connecticut is most likely to be a safe Democratic seat with the state’s Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the major Democratic candidate, winning the seat. In the past four Presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote. However, in North Dakota, Republican Governor John Hoeven is running for the seat after serving as the Governor since December 2000 with no real Democrat challenging. George W. Bush won the popular vote in North Dakota twice and so did John McCain in 2008.
On the Republican side, there are six incumbents retiring from the Senate, among them Judd Gregg of New Hampshire and Kit Bond of Missouri. In the last two Presidential elections saw the popular vote in New Hampshire go to Kerry and Obama and in their last Senate race, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeated incumbent Republican John Sununu. The race so far is between Democratic two term congressman Paul Hodes facing off against the state’s former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte who served in the capacity under Democratic Governor John Lynch, who has served as Governor since winning election in 2004 and won his third term in 2008 with 70% of the vote.
In Missouri, McCain won the popular vote their in the Presidential election, but by less than a percent. In their last Senate election in 2006, Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Republican Jim Talent and Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won his election in 2008, having served as the elected Attorney General of the state. The most likely Republican candidate for the seat is Congressman Roy Blunt who has name recognition as a Congressman serving since election in 1996 and as the father of former Governor Matt Blunt. However, the leading Democratic candidate, Robin Carnahan, the daughter of former Missouri Governor Mel Carnaham and former Senator for the state Jean Carnahan, being the first woman to sit on the Senate for Missouri.
Looking at the Democratic incumbents seeking reelection, the most safe seats belong to Daniel Inouye of Hawaii who has served as a Senator for the state since being elected in 1962, the only Senator more senior than Inouye being Robert Byrd of West Virginia. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin also has a safe seat in the Senate. No one from the Republican party has really challenged Feingold although there is a possibility that former Governor Tommy Thompson, who served as Secretary of Health and Human Services under Bush, may run for the seat. Barbara Boxer of California and Patty Murray of Washington also have safe seats.
More on this to come.